As the wins pile up in this Patriots Dynasty, certain trends start to appear. The Patriots seem to do well against some teams (see: Bills, Buffalo), but struggle against others (any Tom Caughlin-led team). This is my first attempt at putting numbers to this theory to see if anything jumps out.
The first thing we need is an algorithm. I love algorithms, so let's put one together right now. We'll need three pieces to determine how well the Patriots normally do against a team:
- Win Percentage:
The overall record can tell us how successful the Patriots have been overall against a certain team. - Number of Wins:
Just having the basic winning percentage isn't really enough. Some teams have barely played the Patriots, while others face them twice a year. Going 1-0 against someone is much less impressive than going 9-1, so we're going to factor in the amount of wins as well. - Average Margin of Victory:
Similar to the logic behind item #2, a bigger margin of victory is more impressive than a smaller one, so we'll take the average margin and factor that in as well.
With all of this in mind, our algorithm looks like this:
Dominance Rating = Win Percentage x Wins x Average Margin of Victory
Ok, enough with this math crap, let's see how this plays out. Here's a table of data based on the above algorithm. Click on the headers to sort each column.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Win Pct | Avg Margin of Victory | Dominance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 12.75 | 28.7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 13.00 | 65.0 |
| New York Giants | 4 | 3 | 0.571 | 3.57 | 8.2 |
| Washington Redskins | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 18.40 | 58.9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 2 | 0.714 | 5.29 | 18.9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 3 | 0.500 | 0.67 | 1.0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6 | 1 | 0.857 | 12.14 | 62.4 |
| San Fransisco 49ers | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 7.25 | 16.3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 3 | 2 | 0.600 | 6.00 | 10.8 |
| Detroit Lions | 4 | 2 | 0.667 | 3.33 | 8.9 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 1 | 0.833 | 11.67 | 48.6 |
| Chicago Bears | 5 | 1 | 0.833 | 10.67 | 44.4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 10.33 | 62.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 15.40 | 49.3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 4 | 1 | 0.800 | 4.40 | 14.1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3 | 3 | 0.500 | 4.67 | 7.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 26 | 15 | 0.634 | 7.49 | 123.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 35 | 5 | 0.875 | 11.83 | 362.1 |
| New York Jets | 31 | 11 | 0.738 | 9.24 | 211.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | 5 | 0.615 | -0.31 | -1.5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 11.13 | 68.1 |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | 9 | 0.526 | 5.32 | 28.0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 3 | 0.750 | 2.92 | 19.7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12 | 4 | 0.750 | 7.25 | 65.3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 4 | 0.667 | 2.42 | 12.9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 2 | 0.800 | 12.20 | 78.1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7 | 2 | 0.778 | 7.56 | 41.1 |
| Houston Texans | 10 | 2 | 0.833 | 11.92 | 99.3 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 3 | 0.700 | 9.80 | 48.0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 16 | 6 | 0.727 | 9.27 | 107.9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8 | 1 | 0.889 | 12.78 | 90.9 |
Interesting! It looks like we're on the right track with our algorithm, since the two teams mentioned at the beginning of this blog post actually bookend the list:
- Buffalo Bills:
The sheer number of wins coupled with the high win percentage and double-digit margin of victory puts the Bills at the "most dominated" team by the Patriots. And my gut tells me this is 1,000% true. My guess is that Bills fans will feel the same way. - New York Giants:
I'll begrudgingly accept this as accurate as well. The Giants are one of the few teams that the Patriots don't have a winning record against, and the margin of victory is incredibly small.
So there you have it. If you have any suggestions or comments, feel free to leave them in the comments section below. Enjoy.
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