One of the main detractions of the AFC East being perceived as a "weak" division is the lack of top-tier quarterbacks to come out of the division. And if we look at a list of the top 100 QBs since 2000 sorted by QB Rating, these are the QBs that have played in the AFC East over that time:
- Tom Brady (10)
- Chad Pennington (21)
- Tyrod Taylor (23)
- Ryan Tannehill (35)
- Jacoby Brissett (37)
- Brian Griese (53)
- Matt Moore (58)
- Brian Hoyer (59)
- Damon Huard (65)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (67)
- Drew Bledsoe (74)
- Sam Darnold (76)
- Matt Cassel (80)
- Rob Johnson (83)
- Doug Flutie (89)
- Jay Fiedler (90)
- EJ Manuel (91)
- Josh Allen (94)
- J.P. Losman (99)
- Trent Edwards (100)
Not exactly a Who's Who of notable names. Although, surprisingly each team is represented in the top 4. But why haven't the rest of the AFC East teams been able to produce top-level quarterbacks over the past 20 years? Let's take a look.
How to Beat the Patriots
Believe it or not, there's a blueprint for how to beat the Patriots. Step number one? Get pressure on Tom Brady. But not any sort of pressure; you have to get pressure while only rushing your defensive linemen. Blitzing Tom Brady only makes him angry, and you won't like him when he's angry. Also, Brady is really good at avoiding pressure off the edge, so to make him the most uncomfortable you'll need pressure up the middle. Combine that with tight, physical coverage to disrupt the timing of the receivers and you have a chance. See the 2007/2011 Giants or the 2012 Ravens for textbook examples.
So if you're a head coach hired to bring an AFC East team back to relevancy, what's your first order of business? Shoring up your defensive line. Don't believe me? Let's look at some draft picks.
Drafting in the AFC East
We could theoretically go through every single draft pick by the Jets, Bills and Dolphins going back to 2000, but that seems excessive. So we'll simplify it by looking at those teams' first round picks. First round picks are usually selected to be can't-miss performers at a position of need, so it should give us an idea of what the coaching staff was focusing on as an area in need of quick improvement.
The New York Jets
Going back to 2000, the Jets have drafted a defensive player with their first pick in the draft a staggering 72% of the time (18 of 25). And how many times did they draft a QB in the first round? Three times: Sam Darnold, Mark Sanchez and Chad Pennington. I suppose it's not hard to see why it took the Jets 9 years to recover from drafting Mark "Buttfumble" Sanchez before attempting to find a franchise QB for the second time. Of those, Chad Pennington was the most successful, but struggled after shoulder injuries caused him to lose strength in his throws.
Year | Rnd | Player | Pick | Pos |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 1 | Quinnen Williams | 3 | DT |
2018 | 1 | Sam Darnold | 3 | QB |
2017 | 1 | Jamal Adams | 6 | S |
2016 | 1 | Darron Lee | 20 | OLB |
2015 | 1 | Leonard Williams | 6 | DE |
2014 | 1 | Calvin Pryor | 18 | DB |
2013 | 1 | Dee Milliner | 9 | DB |
2013 | 1 | Sheldon Richardson | 13 | DT |
2012 | 1 | Quinton Coples | 16 | DE |
2011 | 1 | Muhammad Wilkerson | 30 | DT |
2010 | 1 | Kyle Wilson | 29 | DB |
2009 | 1 | Mark Sanchez | 5 | QB |
2008 | 1 | Vernon Gholston | 6 | DE |
2008 | 1 | Dustin Keller | 30 | TE |
2007 | 1 | Darrelle Revis | 14 | DB |
2006 | 1 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | 4 | T |
2006 | 1 | Nick Mangold | 29 | C |
2004 | 1 | Jonathan Vilma | 12 | LB |
2003 | 1 | Dewayne Robertson | 4 | DT |
2002 | 1 | Bryan Thomas | 22 | DE |
2001 | 1 | Santana Moss | 16 | WR |
2000 | 1 | Shaun Ellis | 12 | DE |
2000 | 1 | John Abraham | 13 | DE |
2000 | 1 | Chad Pennington | 18 | QB |
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been a bit more measured in their approach to drafting defensive stalwarts in the first round, as they pick top defenders 54% of the time (12 of 22). They have attempted to draft a QB a few times, with their most recent being Josh Allen. They've also taken chances on EJ Manuel (6-11 as a starter) and JP Losman (10-23). Other notable QBs that have started for the Bills include ex-Patriot Drew Bledsoe and AFC East journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Year | Rnd | Player | Pick | Pos |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 1 | Ed Oliver | 9 | DT |
2018 | 1 | Josh Allen | 7 | QB |
2018 | 1 | Tremaine Edmunds | 16 | ILB |
2017 | 1 | TreDavious White | 27 | CB |
2016 | 1 | Shaq Lawson | 19 | DE |
2014 | 1 | Sammy Watkins | 4 | WR |
2013 | 1 | EJ Manuel | 16 | QB |
2012 | 1 | Stephon Gilmore | 10 | DB |
2011 | 1 | Marcell Dareus | 3 | DT |
2010 | 1 | C.J. Spiller | 9 | RB |
2009 | 1 | Aaron Maybin | 11 | DE |
2009 | 1 | Eric Wood | 28 | C |
2008 | 1 | Leodis McKelvin | 11 | DB |
2007 | 1 | Marshawn Lynch | 12 | RB |
2006 | 1 | Donte Whitner | 8 | DB |
2006 | 1 | John McCargo | 26 | DT |
2004 | 1 | Lee Evans | 13 | WR |
2004 | 1 | J.P. Losman | 22 | QB |
2003 | 1 | Willis McGahee | 23 | RB |
2002 | 1 | Mike Williams | 4 | T |
2001 | 1 | Nate Clements | 21 | DB |
2000 | 1 | Erik Flowers | 26 | DE |
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins? To put it bluntly, they haven't drafted well. In fact, they've only managed to have 17 first round draft picks over the years, and most of those haven't been particularly spectacular. Of those 17 picks, only 8 went towards shoring up the defense, but that could be explained by the fact that Miami had already built a formidable front 7 by the time the Brady/Belichick show came to town. When you have Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas leading your defense it won't be seen as a position of need for quite a while. But surprisingly, the only QB Miami took in the first round in the past 20ish years? Ryan Tannehill.
Year | Rnd | Player | Pick | Pos |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 1 | Christian Wilkins | 13 | DT |
2018 | 1 | Minkah Fitzpatrick | 11 | S |
2017 | 1 | Charles Harris | 22 | OLB |
2016 | 1 | Laremy Tunsil | 13 | T |
2015 | 1 | DeVante Parker | 14 | WR |
2014 | 1 | Ja'Wuan James | 19 | T |
2013 | 1 | Dion Jordan | 3 | DE |
2012 | 1 | Ryan Tannehill | 8 | QB |
2011 | 1 | Mike Pouncey | 15 | G |
2010 | 1 | Jared Odrick | 28 | DE |
2009 | 1 | Vontae Davis | 25 | DB |
2008 | 1 | Jake Long | 1 | T |
2007 | 1 | Ted Ginn | 9 | WR |
2006 | 1 | Jason Allen | 16 | DB |
2005 | 1 | Ronnie Brown | 2 | RB |
2004 | 1 | Vernon Carey | 19 | T |
2001 | 1 | Jamar Fletcher | 26 | DB |
The Results
So how did this turn out? If you look at the defensive rankings, each of these teams has ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense multiple times (Jets: 6, Bills: 6, Dolphins: 8). This means Brady's division looked like this over the years in terms of top 10 defenses:
- 2000: Dolphins & Bills
- 2001
- 2002: Dolphins
- 2003: Dolphins, Bills & Jets (!)
- 2004: Bills & Jets
- 2005
- 2006: Dolphins & Jets
- 2007
- 2008: Dolphins
- 2009: Jets
- 2010: Jets
- 2011: Dolphins
- 2012: Dolphins
- 2013: Dolphins
- 2014: Bills
- 2015: Jets
- 2016
- 2017
- 2018: Bills
- 2019: Bills
Oh, and in 2003 the Patriots were the #1 ranked scoring defense that year. So every team in the AFC East was in the top ten. How did the Patriots handle such a meat grinder of a division? By going 14-2 and winning the Super Bowl.
But has this approach worked? Well, no. But then again, neither has any other approach: the Patriots defeat the rest of the NFL at the same reckless pace as they do the poor AFC East.
To a certain extent, this has shown some success. Of the top 5 players with sacks vs the Patriots, all of them came from the AFC East.
- Aaron Schobel (12) - Bills
- Jason Taylor (12) - Dolphins
- Joey Porter (12) - Dolphins/Steelers
- Shaun Ellis (11) - Jets
- Cameron Wake (9) - Dolphins
- Von Miller (7.5) - Broncos
- Kyle Williams (6.5) - Bills
- Robert Mathis (6) - Colts
- John Abraham (6) - Jets
- Justin Tuck (5) - Giants
Sure, the fact that these players all played the Patriots twice a year helped with these numbers, but it still shows that these defenses were tailor-made to defeat (or at least slow down) the Patriots offense. Unfortunately, when you look at the overall numbers, even when playing 6 games a year against the Patriots, the AFC East only accounts for one third of all sacks (214/631) against the Patriots since 2001. Which is just about average.
However, there does seem to have been a shift as of late: all three teams have taken a chance on finding their franchise quarterback; the Jets with Sam Darnold, the Bills with Josh Allen, and the Dolphins with...well, Tua Tagovailoa most likely.
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